The Washington Commanders have the No. 7 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft, giving them the chance to take one of the best players available. There was a scenario where they could have been a bit higher in the order.
The Commanders ended their season with a 24-17 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, which essentially locked them into the seventh pick. However, if they and a few other teams had lost the season finale, they could have moved up to the fifth spot and had an even better chance at getting a more impactful player. It was an outcome that many fans wanted; after all, isn't five better than seven when it comes to drafting college prospects?
Commanders analyst Logan Paulsen doesn't quite see it that way. He believes the quality of player a team can get at fifth and seventh overall is closer than people think, and it depends on what each team prioritizes with the pick.
"In my experience...if you do a good job with your board and identify your needs, you might be getting your second-best player at seven, because it's for your team," Paulsen told co-host Jason Johnson on the "Drive to the Draft" podcast. "And that, to me, is excellent value."
Paulsen believes that most of the perceived difference in value between the fifth and seventh overall picks comes from the trade chart used by former NFL head coach Jimmy Johnson. The chart, which assigns each pick a point value, values each of the top 16 picks with values from 1,000 to 3,000. The fifth overall pick has a value of 1,700, while the seventh overall pick is valued at 1,500. Paulsen added that, according to Jimmy Johnson's chart, the 200-point difference equates to "a full player."
But teams have diverged from the perceived value of the trade chart as time has gone on. Teams have a more analytical view of the draft, which means that the perceived value between the two picks is significantly lower.
"Now, with some of these more analytically driven models, it's actually just 20 points, which is less than a seventh-round pick," Paulsen said.
Paulsen and Johnson also laid out how little difference there is between the two picks by looking at which players were taken at both spots in previous years. Last year, the Cleveland Browns, who took defensive lineman Mason Graham at five, and the New York Jets, who took offensive lineman Armand Membou at seven, both got rookie starters. The same thing happened last year with the Los Angeles Chargers taking tackle Joe Alt at five and the Tennessee Titans at seven. Both players were Day 1 starters and remain in those roles.
Perhaps the best example came in 2021, when the Cincinnati Bengals took wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase fifth overall and the Detroit Lions took offensive tackle Penei Sewell at seventh overall. Not only are both players starters, but they're also considered among the best at their respective positions.
One of the biggest factors, Paulsen said, is the prospect's fit for each team.
"Fit is important; vision for the player is extremely important. Infrastructure, coach, offense, defense, all that stuff is extremely important," Paulsen said.
