Skip to main content
Advertising

News | Washington Commanders - Commanders.com

Mock Draft Monday | Will David Bailey fall to the Commanders at No. 7?

16x9 17

Draft season is upon us, and the Washington Commanders have a chance to grab one of the best playmakers in this year's class.

The Commanders' 2025 season did not go as planned following their NFC Championship performance in 2024. A mixture of injuries and overall performance resulted in them finishing with a 5-12 record, including an eight-game losing streak from Weeks 6-14. Head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Adam Peters promised that changes would be coming, and so far, they have restructured their coaching staff with David Blough and Daronte Jones in as the new offensive and defensive coordinators, respectively. Their next task is to retool the roster, with changes likely coming on both sides of the ball.

The Commanders' first-round pick, which is the No. 7 overall selection this year, will play a critical role in that. There are several positions they could address with the pick, from pass rusher to receiver, but regardless of who they take, there's a good chance that player will be an immediate contributor.

Over the next few months, Commanders.com will highlight one mock draft from a draft expert each week to delve into how that player would fit with Washington. After highlighting Caleb Downs and Sonny Styles, we're moving on from Ohio State to break down a player who some consider to be the best pass rusher in the class.

David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech

It's been a while since the Commanders had a pass rusher that routinely caused havoc for opposing quarterbacks in the backfield. They thought they had that in players like Chase Young and Montez Sweat, but their potential never quite materialized in Washington, leading to them being traded elsewhere.

There's a good chance the Commanders can find one of those impact players in this year's draft even if they decide to trade back from No. 7, but why do that when they could take the one some consider to be the best on the board in Bailey out of Texas Tech?

"The Commanders have fielded one of the NFL's six lowest-graded defenses in each of the past three seasons," wrote PFF's Max Chadwick. "Washington addresses that by drafting Bailey, college football's highest-graded defender this past season (93.3). He led college football in PFF pass-rush grade in each of the past two seasons at Texas Tech and Stanford."

On one hand, Washington deserves some credit for making the best of a bad situation with their top three defensive ends suffering essentially season-ending injuries. They finished tied for 12th in sacks and in pressure rate. They managed that despite ranking 21st in blitz percentage -- an area that improved once Quinn took over as the play caller but was still far below average.

Still, there's no denying that the Commanders need to make serious improvements when it comes to putting pressure on quarterbacks. According to FTN, it took 2.75 seconds for signal-callers facing the Commanders' defense to feel pressure and tied for the third-longest time to throw at 2.78 seconds. This, coupled with the Commanders' problems in the secondary, contributed to Washington ranking 28th in passing yards allowed and passer rating allowed.

Bailey wouldn't singlehandedly turn the Commanders' defense into the league's best pass-rushing unit, but he would certainly provide some immediate help. He ranked third among all FBS players in pass rush grade (93.3) and generated 73 pressures for the Red Raiders. He ranked fifth in the previous season. He beat out players like Abdul Carter, despite Bailey getting 100 fewer pass-rush opportunities.

As one AFC executive told NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, Bailey is the "best rusher in the draft. No doubt."

"Bailey is extremely hard for linemen to stay in front of," Zierlein wrote. "He moves like a slashing two guard, blending explosiveness and fluidity to slip, bend and flow around blocks from multiple angles. His leverage and lower-body flexion create game-over scenarios once he reaches pocket depth with even a minor lead."

The Commanders need more than just an impactful pass rusher, though, as they were 30th against the run in 2025 and gave up 4.8 yards per carry. By many accounts, Bailey could use some improvement in this area. Zierlein points out that Bailey can be "stalled" when offensive linemen manage to get their hands on him. Bailey is quick and elusive enough to make that a difficult task, but the results do show a clear gap in his skill set as a pass rusher and run stopper. He finished last season tied for 95th among edge defenders against the run, which is more concerning when considering that Texas Tech's strength of schedule ranked among the easiest in the Big 12.

However, Bailey did put together promising performances against Texas Tech's more difficult opponents. He had four pressures against BYU in the Big 12 Championship and against Oregon in the first round of the College Football Playoff with a sack in each game. In fact, it was his production against Oregon that convinced Commanders analyst Logan Paulsen that he is the best pass rusher this year's draft class has to offer.

"We talk about timing the snap; it was perfect. His instincts as a pass rusher -- on the line, over the line -- he's got it," Paulsen said. "The length -- the arm length and the strength -- seem like it was excellent ... Nobody in this draft class, as of now, gets more consistent pressure on the quarterback than David Bailey."

The Commanders only have six draft picks this year -- just one more compared to 2025 -- and it's clear that they need help at multiple positions to get back into the playoff discussion in the upcoming season. They've expressed a desire to get younger and faster, which could be difficult with just two picks in the first three rounds.

But there is value in finding an answer at one of the more important positions in the sport. If they were to take Bailey off the board and it works out, it could be worth it to have one of the smallest draft classes in the league.

"His draft grade is slightly tempered by a lack of desired size/length, but the explosiveness and athletic talent is truly elite," Zierlein wrote. "His sack production should carry over to the NFL as an odd-front rush linebacker with Pro Bowl upside."

Related Content

Advertising