Draft season is upon us, and the Washington Commanders have a chance to grab one of the best playmakers in this year's class.
The Commanders' 2025 season did not go as planned following their NFC Championship performance in 2024. A mixture of injuries and overall performance resulted in them finishing with a 5-12 record, including an eight-game losing streak from Weeks 6-14. Head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Adam Peters promised that changes would be coming, and so far, they have restructured their coaching staff with David Blough and Daronte Jones in as the new offensive and defensive coordinators, respectively. Their next task is to retool the roster, with changes likely coming on both sides of the ball.
The Commanders' first-round pick, which is the No. 7 overall selection this year, will play a critical role in that. There are several positions they could address with the pick, from pass rusher to receiver, but regardless of who they take, there's a good chance that player will be an immediate contributor.
Over the next few months, Commanders.com will highlight one mock draft from a draft expert each week to delve into how that player would fit with Washington. After starting things off with Sonny Styles, we're staying with Ohio State's defense to discuss another playmaker at the safety position.
Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Safeties are not considered highly-valued prospects in the NFL draft. Since 2000, there have only been four taken with a top 10 pick: Roy Williams (eighth in 2002), Sean Taylor (fifth in 2004), Eric Berry (fifth in 2010) and Jamal Adams (sixth in 2017).
That's not to say that safeties aren't valuable; Taylor, Berry and Adams were all considered among the best in the league for a time and helped elevate their defense's potential. But teams generally use those top picks on positions considered to be more impactful like left tackle, quarterback, defensive end and cornerback.
However, there are times when a prospect is too good to pass on, and Downs is considered by many to be one of the few safeties in the past 25 years who deserves to be one of the first players taken off the board.
"Downs is a difference-maker in the mold of Derwin James Jr. or Kyle Hamilton who can dictate what an offense is able to do but also be a matchup problem in multiple alignments," wrote ESPN's Miller, who has Downs going to the Commanders at No. 7 in his most recent mock draft.
Versatility is a key component to Downs' skill set, and there's not much the two-time Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year cannot do. In the three seasons of his college career, he's lined up at multiple spots on Alabama and Ohio State's defense, from traditional free safety (799 snaps) to in the box (682 snaps) and even close to the line of scrimmage (58 snaps).
And over the last three seasons, it's been hard to find a safety -- or defensive player, for that matter -- who has been more consistent than Downs. According to Pro Football Focus, he was the only safety with grades of at least an 80 in overall defense (83.9), run defense (83), tackling (82.2) and coverage (87). In fact, he never graded lower than a 78 in any of those categories during his college career.
As Commanders analyst Logan Paulsen said, Downs is a "'football-playing Johnny' in the purest sense of the word."
"As a nickel, he will come down and absolutely obliterate you on the tackle," Paulsen said in an episode of the team's "Drive to the Draft" podcast. "Caleb Downs will come knock your face off. He knows how to blitz; he can fit runs; he stays incredibly square in man coverage. He plays with great strength ... To me, he feels like the perfect buffalo nickel hybrid linebacker, and I think about all the issues Washington's had with nickel players here. I would die if that dude came here."
Downs' expectations were high heading into the 2025 season. PFF ranked him as their No. 2 player on their College 50 -- making him their best defensive player in the draft -- citing his 91.7 PFF grade in the previous two years and his ability to line up in the slot as well as at safety and corner.
Downs did not disappoint. Although his stats dropped compared to 2024, he still recorded 68 tackles with a sack and two interceptions. It was enough to give him his second unanimous All-American selection as well as the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.
As a result, Downs is considered one of the most impactful players in this year's class. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. has him as the sixth player on his big board, while NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah has him at No. 10. Regardless of where he lands in the rankings, most agree that he created a bevy of problems for offenses. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein referred to him as "An agent of disruption at the line of scrimmage."
"Downs is an alpha who brings immense juice on each snap," Zierlein wrote. "He's at his best when deployed near the line as a box safety or big nickel back. He'll gamble a little bit as a run defender, but he makes more than enough disruptive plays near the line of scrimmage to make up for it. He's fluent in man or zone over the first two levels and is rarely fooled by play-action or misdirection."
Technically, safety isn't a need for the Commanders. Both Quan Martin and Will Harris are under contract for one more season, and players like Jeremy Reaves and Percy Butler add depth. However, the Commanders' draft position gives them a rare opportunity to find a player who can bring immediate impact. They need as many of those as they can find this offseason with Jones taking over one of the worst defensive units in football last season.
And while it's normally hard to find a player who can offer that at safety, it seems like Downs might be the exception.
"Downs...is basically an extension of the defensive coordinator," Kiper wrote. "His football knowledge shows in his play; it's obvious when you watched him in the Ohio State defense."
