The Washington Commanders are traveling to Levi's Stadium to play the San Francisco 49ers for a matchup on Monday Night Football. Here are three keys to Washington ending San Francisco's undefeated streak to start the season.
1. Win on third down.
The Commanders have an issue with third down on both sides of the ball. They rank 29th in conversion rate on offense, while the defense ranks 24th, allowing opponents to convert on 43.28% of their attempts. The 49ers are the inverse of that, ranking first in third down percentage on offense and 18th on defense. If the Commanders hope to come away from Monday's game with an upset, they must find a remedy for both issues.
An easy solution is for the Commanders to improve their production on third down, and there were examples of them doing that against the New York Giants last weekend. They gained double-digit yardage on nine of their first-down scenarios, and it often helped set the tone for drives. However, there were also 13 first downs where they gained three yards or fewer. The 49ers are giving up just 4.7 yards per play, so the Commanders must find some way to get the ball out of Jayden Daniels' hands, whether it's with quick passes or finding lanes on the ground.
Washington's defense faces an arguably more difficult challenge. Brock Purdy is on a tear to start the season, ranking first in QBR, fourth in passer rating and first in touchdowns. He's leading an offense that is ninth in total offense but putting up the second most points per game. Punter Corliss Waitman has punted just 16 times through five games, as the 49ers rank seventh in punts per offensive score.
It will not be easy to bottle up the 49ers' offense. Twenty of their players have already touched the ball at least once, and eight of those players have at least one play resulting in a gain of at least 15 yards. The unit also protects Purdy well, as he has only been sacked three times.
2. Play consistently for four quarters.
The Commanders have managed to build leads in the fourth quarter this season but maintaining them has been an issue on defense. They rank last in second-half points allowed this season, and those struggles contributed to them playing in overtime against the Giants.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are actually at their best in the second half. They rank second in the league with 17.8 points scored in the third and fourth quarters on average, and 89 of their 154 points have come in that portion of games.
Although the Commanders have shown flashes of what could be an improving defense, they have yet to maintain the impressive stats they put together in the first half of games. They allowed the Seattle Seahawks to come back from a 24-10 deficit in Week 3 and gave up 20 points to the Indianapolis Colts in London. The Giants were down 14 points with eight minutes left in the fourth quarter but had their two most successful drives of 75 and 72 yards to tie the score.
It's a point of emphasis for defensive coordinator Daronte Jones, who said last weekend's game against the Giants was a reminder for the players to keep plays in front of them to avoid explosive gains that could flip the field. The 49ers are third in yards per play, and while they will be without Deebo Samuel, who already has three receiving touchdowns this season, there are plenty of other weapons for Purdy to work with.
3. Contain Mike Evans.
Evans' game refuses to age, as he is off to another hot start with his new team. He's been a reliable option for Purdy on first down, as 21 of his 24 catches have resulted in first downs. He has seven catches of at least 15 yards and three touchdowns, and at 6-5 and 231 pounds, he presents a unique challenge for Washington's cornerbacks.
Washington's cornerbacks have been a bright spot for its defense this season. Amik Robertson still leads the league in pass breakups, and Rasul Douglas has enough size to compete with receivers downfield. Both players have a tenacity to their play style, and it normally helps tip matchups in their favor. Evans brings elite talent in route-running along with his size, but the Commanders have confidence that either cornerback can hold their own against him.
Trey Amos is the other cornerback who might get some time against Evans on Monday. Amos is currently on Injured Reserve but is getting a full week of work in practice. Amos also has the size to match up with Evans, although he has barely played in a calendar year since fracturing his fibula last season. If he does play, it will likely be on a snap count.
It will take a complete effort from the Commanders' secondary to contain Evans. Washington has not fared well against No. 1 wide receivers this season, but they have had moments where they can make them nonfactors on the field. The 49ers have other options, but limiting Evans would go a long way toward making Purdy's night more difficult.
