The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect those of the team unless specified by a direct quote.
The Washington Commanders are coming back from their bye week to face the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football this weekend. Here are three keys to them pulling off the upset.
1. Take advantage of returning offensive players.
Although the Broncos are a formidable team and in the running for the best record in the NFL this year, their defense is clearly where they are at their best. They're near the top of the league in nearly every major category and have allowed the fewest yards per play (4.4) this season. They have a fearsome pass rush led by Nik Bonitto and a stifling secondary that appears to be getting cornerback Patrick Surtain back for the final six games.
It will be a difficult task for the Commanders, whose offense has struggled to endure multiple injuries in recent months. The good news is that some of those players, including wideout Terry McLaurin, are on track to return this weekend. Assuming Noah Brown, who is currently in his 21-day window to return from Injured Reserve, is also back, it would be the first time the Commanders would have all their best receivers on the field at the same time since Week 2.
It's unclear how involved McLaurin or Brown would be in the game plan considering how much time they have missed, but their presence alone could be enough to help the Commanders be more competitive. Not only would it provide quarterback Marcus Mariota with more options, but it could also force the Broncos to ease off their commitment to stopping Washington's ground attack. Although the Commanders still rank fifth in yards per rush, they rank 15th over the last three games and have dropped a full yard average since September.
McLaurin and Brown could also help inject the offense with more explosive plays -- something the unit has lacked for some time. Over the last three weeks, the Commanders have had just six passing plays surpass more than 20 yards.
"At the end of the day, if you have an opportunity to get those guys the rock, that's going to help us out," Mariota said. "They're great players, and the more that we can get those matchups with those guys, I think we can take advantage of them."
2. Don't give Bo Nix easy reads.
The Commanders showed noticeable improvement two weeks ago against the Dolphins, forcing three punts on top of getting two goal line stops and holding Tua Tagovailoa to 171 passing yards. They'll need to do something similar to Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, who is just as capable of playing the position at a high level, like he did in the Broncos' win over the Kansas City Chiefs, as he is to struggle against lower caliber defenses.
Nix has provided a mix of both performances this season, although it's worth noting that he hasn't done much to put the Broncos in peril during their eight-game win streak. Although he himself didn't score in the Broncos' 22-19 win over the Chiefs in Week 11, he was accurate with the football with a 64.9 completion percentage and put the Broncos in range for a game-winning field goal by going 4-of-6 on the final drive, including a 32-yard shot to Troy Franklin.
That isn't a complete reflection of how the season has gone for Nix, though. He's also struggled against teams like the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders -- teams with middling defenses and that are all currently in the top five of the draft order -- throwing three touchdowns to three interceptions in those matchups. As a result, the offense delivered poorer performances; although the Broncos won those games, the unit failed to score more than 20 points.
Regardless of how Nix plays, the Broncos have not been an explosive offense this year. They rank 17th in yards per play, and Nix has the lowest differential in average completed air yards (4.6) and intended air yards (8.2). However, that doesn't mean Nix is incapable of explosive plays. He's tied for fifth in completions of at least 20 yards, according to Pro Football Focus, and is tied for the third-most big-time throws (17).
So, it will be important for the Commanders to keep Nix as confused as possible and get the Raiders version of the quarterback to be at Northwest Stadium rather than the Chiefs version. Quinn confirmed the Commanders played more zone coverage in certain situations against the Dolphins, which could be another wrinkle for the Broncos, who are expecting a Commanders defense that has primarily played man coverage this season.
The Commanders also anticipate Will Harris, who has missed most of the season with a fractured fibula, to return this weekend. Harris was expected to provide the Commanders with more options in coverage prior to his injury, and his presence could mean more flexibility against a Broncos team that is performing around league average in most metrics.
3. Stick to the plan.
The Commanders would benefit from this weekend's game being a sloppy one, and there is evidence to suggest that will be the case. The Broncos' eight-game win streak is tied for the longest in football, but nearly all of them were decided by six points or fewer. While their defense has been one of the best units in the league, their offense tends to provide opponents with opportunities to keep things competitive.
That's not to say that things will be easy for the Commanders. The Broncos haven't allowed a team to rush for 100 yards on them in a month. They have the deepest arsenal of pass-rushers in the sport, as 16 players have recorded at least a half-sack this season. Their offense tends to be low scoring but did put up 44 points on the Dallas Cowboys and 33 on the New York Giants.
The Commanders will need to have a patient approach this week. The reality is that Mariota will probably be sacked a few times, and the offense will have drives with minimal gains. Nix is going to have a few explosive plays that will ignite the Broncos' offense and put them in scoring position.
However, assuming the Commanders get more weapons back and their defense can maintain the progress it showed against the Dolphins, there could be a chance for them to pull out a win on Sunday. At that point, it will come down tom the Commanders being able to execute in the "winning time moments" Quinn preaches every week. If they can do that, it will go a long way towards showing that their season is not lost yet.
