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News | Washington Commanders - Commanders.com

Hail Mail | Thoughts ahead of the trade deadline

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The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect those of the team.

We're back again for another edition of Hail Mail, and the Washington Commanders are at a crossroads after their 38-14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks and the trade deadline approaching today (Nov. 4) at 4 p.m.

One fan reached out to me about the team's potential decisions to get involved in trades, so let's dive into that.

-- @washtailgate: I can't see us making any trades. Do you?

Trades are always a trickier subject than I think some fans realize. It's one of those situations where I think the Madden video game warps some of our perceptions about how these moves go down.

Before I give my answer on this, let me explain why the decision to trade or acquire a player is a layered decision. If a team is considered a "buyer," its front office has several factors to consider:

  1. Is there a player on another team that can improve the roster, and if so, is that player's team actually willing to listen to a trade offer? This is an extreme example, but I'm sure there are several teams out there that would love to trade for Jayden Daniels, but good luck getting Adam Peters to entertain that prospect, no matter how good the trade package is.
  2. I would also add that there are other factors to consider with this, particularly concerning how the player fits into the culture and scheme. As fun as it can be to imagine certain players on the same roster together, the reality is that their styles don't always mesh in certain schemes. Unless you want to change your system for one player, which can happen, there's a risk of the move turning sour.
  3. What are you willing to give up to acquire that player? History tells us that most teams aren't willing to give up that much to acquire a player during the season. While there are occasionally blockbuster trades, such as the one that sent Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers to the San Francisco 49ers back in 2022, the majority of trades involve Day 3 picks.

Teams considered "sellers" have different questions to answer:

  1. Are there players who could garner interest from other teams? Do you actually want to give up that player?
  2. What kind of trade package would you want in return for that player? Would that include draft picks, a player or some combination of the two?
  3. How do you measure the player's impact, both in terms of cultural and scheme fit, against the possibility of gaining younger talent in the draft?
  4. Are you willing or able to take on that player's contract?

One of my biggest pet peeves is when people complain about their teams being seemingly inactive during free agency or the trade deadline. Keep in mind that we only see the results of discussions and not all the moves that make them happen. Every team is working the phone on some level right now seeing what kind of moves they can make. Some of those discussions lead to trades; others fizzle out because of a disagreement on compensation or a simple lack of interest in trading a player away. You can obviously be frustrated by a lack of results, but let's not confuse that with being inactive. This isn't Pro Football Focus' draft simulator; you can't just force a trade because you want it done.

Now for my answer on whether the Commanders will make any trades. I don't foresee them being "buyers," although Peters could prove me wrong and has done so in the past (shoutout to Von Miller). That would leave being "sellers" as the only option. Teams with losing records at the deadline tend to fall into this category, although I do wonder how far the Commanders would be willing to go with that approach.

I'll let you name names as to who you think could make sense on the market and speak more generally on the subject here. The Commanders have players that I believe other teams could be interested in, but they also happen to be important pieces to their future. I also don't believe the front office is willing to give up on this season, despite the team's current record. That's just not who they are. So, I highly doubt they would trade away any players at the top of the depth chart.

So, here's my answer: probably not, but if they do, it won't make serious waves around the league.

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