The Washington Commanders are coming back to Northwest Stadium this weekend to take on the New York Giants. Here are three keys to getting a win.
1. Force Jameis Winston to make bad decisions.
Winston is 2-0 since taking over as the Giants' starting quarterback in place of the injured Jaxson Dart. As expected, his performance has been a mix of impressive and head-scratching plays. The Commanders will need to force more of the latter out of the veteran to give themselves the best chance to win.
Winston has been his classic self over the last two weeks. Per NextGenStats, he's ninth in intended air yards, second in completed air yards and second in aggressiveness. He's also 29th in passer rating and 28th in QBR. His three interceptions are tied for the fourth-most in the league, and he has four turnover-worthy plays, according to Pro Football Focus. The opportunities will be there for the Commanders if they can execute.
It should be an ideal matchup for the Commanders' defense, which has forced five turnovers in two weeks. The scheme is designed to confuse quarterbacks and put pressure on them at the line of scrimmage, providing easy turnover opportunities for the secondary. Odafe Oweh is a top 20 edge defender in pass-rush win rate, leading a defense that's 12th overall in the category. It hasn't led to many sacks yet, but it has affected quarterbacks' accuracy. Daniel Jones, for example, had the fifth-worst completion rate while under pressure last week, per PFF.
Winston is 40th in completion percentage with two interceptions when under pressure. So, expect the Commanders to exploit that on Sunday.
2. Shut down the run game.
The Giants are going to run the ball on Sunday, regardless of whether the Commanders can bring pressure. They're near the bottom of the league in yards per attempt but seventh in rushing attempts. They're committed to leaning on Cam Skattebo, who paces their ground attack and is tied with Isaiah Likely for the most first downs generated on the team.
The Commanders, however, have one of the stingiest defenses against the run. They've allowed the fourth-fewest rushing first downs all season, and it doesn't take long for teams to get the message that they won't have success on the ground. The Commanders' defense has only seen 94 rushing attempts -- the sixth-fewest in the league.
Washington has solid run defenders at the line of scrimmage -- Javon Kinlaw is 10th in run stop win rate -- but the secret to their success is the linebacker position. Rookie Sonny Styles is third on the team in tackles, while players like Oweh and K'Lavon Chaisson help set edges to prevent runs from getting to the sideline.
The key for the Commanders will be to get Skattebo down as quickly as possible. He's ninth in yards after contact but only has three broken tackles so far this season. If they can do that, it'll force the Giants into longer third-down scenarios -- an area where the Giants are top 10 but faced distances of five yards or fewer on nine of their 15 attempts against the Arizona Cardinals last week.
3. Find a way to get the passing game going.
Weather is going to play a role in Sunday's game. As of Friday, The Weather Channel lists an 87% chance of rain on Sunday with winds ranging from 10 to 15 miles per hour. What's more, there's a chance the Commanders will be without their top two receivers, as neither Terry McLaurin nor Stefon Diggs has participated so far this week.
It's certainly not ideal for what could be Jayden Daniels' return, but it doesn't change the fact that the Commanders must find a way to get their passing game going against a defense that is ninth in passing yards allowed per game.
Assuming Diggs and McLaurin are inactive, the Commanders must rely on their depth to get them through the afternoon. It could lead to more opportunities for rookie Antonio Williams, who has the fourth-highest team target share among rookie receivers this season. There's also a chance that Chig Okonkwo, who the Commanders signed to provide more yards after the catch, will get more targets. Daniels likes getting his tight ends involved in the passing game, and the two have not played much together up to this point.
It could also mean more opportunities for Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown, who have the top two average depths of target on the team. Burks has three receptions this season, and two of them have resulted in touchdowns.
The Commanders upgraded the depth at wide receiver in the offseason, and this weekend could be another opportunity for the players to prove why that was a smart move.
